|Rethinking the Provision of Public Services in Post-Conflict States
PDF file (50kB)
|The Provision of Social Services in Fragile States: Independent Service Authorities as a New Modality||Tessa Bold, Paul Collier and Andrew Zeitlin||
PDF file (365kB)
|Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races?
[2007, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69: 1-28].
|Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler||
PDF file (Blackwell's website)
|Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks? [accepted, Review of Development Economics ]||Paul Collier and Benedikt Goderis||
PDF file (229kB)
|What are the preconditions for turnarounds in failing states?
[forthcoming in Journal of Peace and Conflict Management]
|Lisa Chauvet and Paul Collier||
PDF file (185kB)
|Supervision and Project Performance: A Principal-Agent Approach||Lisa Chauvet, Paul Collier and Andreas Fuster||
PDF file (311kB)
|The Cost of Failing States and the Limits to Sovereignty||Lisa Chauvet, Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler||
PDF file (222kB)
|Shocks and Growth: Adaptation, Precaution and Compensation||Paul Collier, Benedikt Goderis and Anke Hoeffler||
PDF file (394kB)
|Assisting Africa to Achieve Decisive Change
[Swedish Economic Policy Review 13 (2006) 199-203]
PDF file (245kB)
|Helping Hand? Aid to Failing States||Lisa Chauvet and Paul Collier||
PDF file (317kB)
Is Aid Oil?: An analysis of whether Africa can absorb more aid.
PDF file (273kB)
Can the World Cut Poverty in Half? How Policy Reform and Effective Aid Can Meet International Development Goals
Poverty in the developing world will decline by about one-half by 2015 if the trends of the 1990s persist. Most of this poverty reduction will occur in Asia, however, while poverty will decline only slightly in Africa. Effective aid could make a contribution to greater poverty reduction in lagging regions. Even more potent would be significant policy reform in these countries. We develop a model of efficient aid in which flows respond to policy improvements that create a better environment for poverty reduction and effective aid. We investigate scenarios of policy reform and efficient aid that point the way to how the world can cut poverty in half in every major region.
Aid allocation and poverty reduction
We have derived a poverty-efficient allocation of aid and compared it with actual aid allocations. The allocation of aid that has the maximum effect on poverty depends on the level of poverty and the quality of policies. Using the headcount, poverty-gap, and squared poverty gap measures of poverty, alternatively, all yield similar poverty-efficient allocations. We find that the actual allocation of aid is radically different from the poverty-efficient allocation. With the present allocation, aid lifts around 10 million people annually out of poverty in our sample of countries. With a poverty-efficient allocation, the productivity of aid would nearly double.
Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies
Countries emerging from civil war attract both aid and policy advice. We providesd the first systematic empirical analysis of aid and policy reform in the post-conflict growth process. It is based on a comprehensive data set of large civil wars, and covers 17 societies that were in their first decade of post-conflict economic recovery. We investigated whether the absorptive capacity for aid is systematically different in post-conflict countries. We found that during the first 3 post-conflict years absorptive capacity is no greater than normal, but that in the rest of the first decade it is approximately double its normal level. Thus, ideally, aid should phase in during the decade. Historically, aid has not, on average, been higher in post-conflict societies, and indeed it has tended to taper out over the course of the decade. We then investigated whether the contribution of policy to growth is systematically different in post-conflict countries, and in particular, whether particular components of policy are differentially important. For this we used the World Bank policy rating database. We found that growth is more sensitive to policy in post-conflict societies. Comparing the efficacy of different policies, we found that social policies are differentially important relative to macroeconomic policies. However, historically, this does not appear to have been how policy reform has been prioritized in post-conflict societies.