Trinity College, Oxford OX1 3BH
and Department of Sociology, Manor Road, Oxford OX1 3UQ
Tel. +44 1865 286 173
Fax. +44 1865 286 171
sociology.ox.ac.uk or trinity.ox.ac.uk
I am the University Lecturer in Political Sociology and the Fellow and Tutor in Politics at Trinity College.
Research Projects and Related Activities
I am the director of the Oxford QM teachers project which runs workshops and hosts a discussion forum and teaching materials archive for quantitative methods teaching across the social sciences. I am also convenor of the PSA Quantitative Methods Network which supports quantitative methods teaching and research in UK political science. Previously I set up and help run the Oxford Spring School in Quantitative Methods for Social Research.
My Elections etc blog is here. I am on Twitter at https://twitter.com/StephenDFisher.
I have developed a method for long-range election forecasting, details and current forecast for a 2015 British General Election are here.
Undergraduate Political Sociology course website
Undergraduate Quantitative Methods for Politics and Sociology reading list
Graduate Political Sociology reading list
I also teach the political institutions for Prelims (first year undergraduate), and supervise graduate students working on electoral behaviour and social attitudes.
Heath, A.F, S.D. Fisher, G. Rosenblatt, D. Sanders, M. Sobolewska (2013) The Political Integration of Ethnic Minorities in Britain. Oxford: Oxford University Press. OUP link here
Articles in peer-reviewed journals
Fisher, S.D., A.F. Heath, D. Sanders and M. Sobolewska (forthcoming) ‘Candidate Ethnicity and Vote Choice in Britain’, British Journal of Political Science.
J.L. Marshall and S.D. Fisher (forthcoming) ‘Compensation or Constraint? How different dimensions of economic globalization affect government spending and electoral turnout.’ British Journal of Political Science.
Sanders, D., S.D. Fisher, A. Heath, M. Sobolewska (2013) ‘The Democratic Engagement of Britain’s Ethnic Minorities’, Ethnic and Racial Studies.
Sanders, D., A. Heath, S.D. Fisher, M. Sobolewska (2013) ‘The Calculus of Ethnic Minority Voting in Britain’, Political Studies. Gated version here.
Wlezien, C., W. Jennings, S.D. Fisher, R. Ford, M. Pickup. (2013) ‘Polls and the vote in Britain’, Political Studies. 61(S1), 66-91. PDF here.
Smith, S.N., S.D. Fisher and A. Heath (2011) ‘Opportunities and challenges in the expansion of cross-national survey research’, International Journal of Social Research Methods, 14(6), 485-502.
Pickup, M., J.S. Matthews, W. Jennings, R. Ford and S.D. Fisher (2011) ‘Why did the polls overestimate Liberal Democrat support? Sources of Polling Error in the 2010 British General Election’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. 21(2), 179-209.
Curtice, J., S.D. Fisher and J. Kuha (2011) ‘Confounding the Commentators: How the 2010 exit poll got it (more or less) right’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. 21(2), 211-235.
Heath, A., S.D. Fisher, D. Sanders and M. Sobolewska (2011) ‘Ethnic Heterogeneity in the Social Bases of Voting at the 2010 General Election’, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. 21(2), 255-277.
Fisher, S.D., R. Ford, W. Jennings, M. Pickup and C. Wlezien (2011) ‘From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British General Election’, Electoral Studies. 30(2) 250-257. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.09.005
Fisher, S.D., Hobolt, S.B. (2010) ‘Coalition government and electoral accountability’, Electoral Studies. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2010.03.003
Fisher, S.D., L. Lessard-Phillips, S. B. Hobolt, J. Curtice (2008) ‘Disengaging voters: Do plurality systems discourage the less knowledgeable from voting?’ Electoral Studies 27(1) 89-104. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2007.11.001
Fisher, S.D. (2007) ‘(Change in) turnout and (change in) the left share of the vote’, Electoral Studies. 26(3) 598-611.
Fisher, S.D. and J. Curtice (2006) ‘Tactical Unwind? Changes in party preference structure and tactical voting from 2001 to 2005’ Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. 16(1), 55-76.
Heath, A, S. Fisher and S. Smith (2005) ‘The Globalization of Public Opinion Research’, Annual Review of Political Science, 8, 297-334.
Fisher, S.D. (2004) ‘Definition and Measurement of Tactical Voting: the role of rational choice’, British Journal of Political Science, 34, 152-166.
Myatt, D.P. and S.D. Fisher (2002) ‘Tactical Coordination in Plurality Electoral Systems’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 18(4) 504-522.
Fisher, S.D. (2000) ‘Class Contextual Effects on the Conservative Vote in 1983’, British Journal of Political Science, 30, 347-60.
Curtice, J., S. Fisher and R. Ford (2010) ‘Appendix 2: The results analysed’, Appendix to D. Kavanagh and P. Cowley, The British General Election of 2010. Basingstoke, Palgrave.
Curtice, J., S.D. Fisher and L. Lessard-Phillips (2007) Proportional representation and the disappearing voter. In Park, A., Curtice, J., Thomson, K., Phillips, M. and Johnson, M. (eds.), British Social Attitudes: the 23rd Report – Perspectives on a changing society, London: Sage
Fisher, S. and A. Heath (2006) ‘Decreasing desires for income inequality?’ in P. Esther, M. Braun, and P. Mohler eds., Globalization, Value Change, and Generations: A Cross-National and Intergenerational Perspective. Brill, NL.
Curtice, J., S. Fisher and M. Steed (2005) ‘Appendix 2: The results analysed’, Appendix to D Butler and D Kavanagh, The British General Election of 2005. Baisingstoke, Palgrave.
Curtice, J., S. Fisher and M. Steed (2004) ‘Appendix: The results analysed’, Appendix to D Butler and M Westlake, British Politics and European Elections 2004. Baisingstoke, Palgrave.
Curtice, J. and S. Fisher (2003) ‘Prime ministerial persuasion: Thatcher and Blair’ Chapter 11 of the British Social Attitudes 20th Report. London: Sage
Fisher S.D. and M. Swyngedouw (2003) ‘Does Electoral Change Reflect Party Positioning? Flanders 1991-1995’, Revue de la Maison Francaise d’Oxford. 1(1).
Fisher, S.D. (2000) ‘Party Preference Structure in England, 1987-97’, in P. Cowley, D. Denver, A. Russell and L. Harrison (eds.), British Elections and Parties Review, Volume 10. London: Frank Cass.
Reports, editorials, etc.
Best, N., S.D. Fisher, and J. Holmes (2011) `Ethnic dealignment? Improving estimates of the change in ethnic voting between the 2001 and 2005 British General Elections’, MethodsNews: Newsletter from the ESRC National Centre for Research Methods. Summer edition, 4-5. http://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/1843/1/MethodsNews_Summer2011.pdf.
Curtice, J. and S.D. Fisher (2011) The United Kingdom election of 2010. Electoral Studies. 30(1), 234-237. doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2010.11.018
Fisher, S.D., J. Kuha and C. Payne (2010) ‘Editorial: Getting it right on the night, again-the 2010 UK general election exit poll’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A). 173(4), 699-701. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00659.x
Fisher, S.D. (2009) ‘United Kingdom’, European Journal of Political Research 48: 1133-1139. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2009.01894.x
Fisher, S.D. (2008) ‘United Kingdom’, European Journal of Political Research 47: 1156–1164. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2008.00826.x
Fisher, S.D. (2007) ‘United Kingdom’, European Journal of Political Research. 46, 1134-1141. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-6765.2007.00764.x
Fisher, S.D. (2006) ‘United Kingdom’, European Journal of Political Research. 45, 1282-1291.
Fisher, S. and S. Smith (2005) ‘United Kingdom’, European Journal of Political Research: Political Data Yearbook. 44(7-8), 1211-1220.
Evans, J., K. Arzheimer, G. Baldini, T. Bjoklund, E. Carter, S. Fisher and G. Ivaldi (2001) ‘Comparative Mapping of Extreme Right Electoral Dynamics: An Overview of EREPS (Extreme Right Electorates and Party Success)’, European Political Science, 1(1).
Strategic Voting Experiments, with David P. Myatt. Paper presented at APSA, San Francisco, 2001. (PDF version)
Tactical Voting and Tactical Non-Voting. Paper presented at APSA, San Francisco, 2001. (PDF version)
Extending the Rational Voter Theory of Tactical Voting. Paper presented at the Mid-West Political Science Association Meeting in Chicago, April 2001. (PDF version)
Intuition versus Formal Theory: Tactical Voting in England 1987-1997. Paper presented to the American Political Science Association in Washington D.C. 2000, and also at the LSE, January 2001. (PDF version)
Myatt, D.P. (2000) ‘Strategic Voting Under the Qualified Majority Rule’, Nuffield College Economics Discussion Paper 2000-W7. (PDF version)
Myatt, D.P. (2000) ‘Strategic Voting Incentives in a Three Party System’, Nuffield College Economics Discussion Paper 2000-W19. (PDF version)
Slides from Research Talks
Proportional Representation and the ‘Disappearing Voter’ Presentation to the Electoral Reform Society and Make Votes Count, March 2007. Curtice’s slides here; Fisher’s slides here. Note that the presentations are based on Chapter 6 of the 23rd British Social Attitudes Report, edited by Alison Park et al (2007).
The 2005 British general election: what the results tell us? Presentation to the Trinity Society, 2005 (slides in pdf format)