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style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1A1A1A'>New 2015 general election forecasting site: <a href="http://electionsetc.com">ElectionsEtc.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none; text-autospace:none'><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1A1A1A'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none; text-autospace:none'><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1A1A1A'>A former student of mine, Jonathan Jones (<a href="https://twitter.com/JJ_159"><span style='color:#1E74AD;text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'>@JJ_159</span></a>) has kindly set up a new combined general election forecast page and blog at <a href="http://electionsetc.com/"><span style='color:#1E74AD;text-decoration: none;text-underline:none'>ElectionsEtc.com</span></a>&nbsp;with a twitter account <a href="https://twitter.com/ElectionsEtc"><span style='color:#1E74AD; text-decoration:none;text-underline:none'>@<span class=SpellE>ElectionsEtc</span></span></a>. Please follow those links for future updates and discussion of the forecast. &nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none; text-autospace:none'><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1A1A1A'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none; text-autospace:none'><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1A1A1A'>I m very grateful to Jonathan who suggested the new site, set it up and is managing it all for free in his spare time. I think it is great. I hope you like it. &nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none; text-autospace:none'><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1A1A1A'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='mso-pagination:none;mso-layout-grid-align:none; text-autospace:none'><span lang=EN-US style='font-family:Helvetica;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Arial;color:#1A1A1A'>Although Jonathan is a Lib Dem, the forecast and commentary will remain a non-partisan data-driven statistical exercise.&nbsp;There is no change in the methodology associated with the site move. This page will stay up for the record, but will no longer be updated.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class=p1><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class=p1><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Long-range forecast for a 2015 British General Election based on current polls and historical polls and votes<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class=p1><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></b></p> <p class=p1><i style='mso-bidi-font-style:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB;mso-bidi-font-weight: bold'>Stephen Fisher, University of Oxford</span></i><i style='mso-bidi-font-style: normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p></o:p></span></i></p> <p class=p2><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family:Helvetica'>This page gives details of the current forecast from a new polls-based method for forecasting a general election on 7th May 2015. The method was revised in February 2014 and is described in a<span style='color:#D90B05'> <a href="http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/LongRangeElectionForecastingFeb14.pdf"><span style='color:#0000E9'>working paper</span></a></span>.<span style='color:#D90B05'> </span>The original October 2013 working paper is <a href="http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/LongRangeElectionForecastingOct13.pdf"><span style='color:#0000E9'>here</span></a>. There is also occasional commentary at my <a href="http://electionsetc.blogspot.co.uk/"><span style='color:#0000E9'>Elections etc.</span></a> blog. To receive Tweets with updates of both the forecast and commentary, follow me <span style='color:blue'><a href="https://twitter.com/StephenDFisher"><span style='text-decoration:none; text-underline:none'>@<span class=SpellE>StephenDFisher</span></span></a></span>.</span><span class=apple-converted-space><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Helvetica; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>&nbsp;</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p2><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>The approach is broadly to predict the next election based on current opinion polls and the track record of polls in previous electoral cycles, allowing for change in opinion in the run up to the election. The method allows for three main historical tendencies: governments being more likely to recover and oppositions fall back; parties moving back towards their long-run average level of support and/or the level of support at the previous election; and lastly and by far the least important tendency is for the Conservatives to over perform and Labour to under perform their vote intention figures in the polls when it comes to election day. All three suggest a Conservative recovery and a Labour set back from autumn 2013. The statistical regression methodology generates estimates of uncertainty and so prediction intervals (range of likely outcomes) and probabilities for key events are also provided below. <span class=s1>The forecast represents a way to think about the implications of current opinion polls for the outcome of the next general election in light of the historical relationship between polls and election results. It is the product of a statistical analysis of the data and not my personal opinion about what will happen.</span><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p2><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Date of forecast: 11.07.2014<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Days till the election: 300<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Inputted current average poll shares <o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class=p1><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Con :</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> 31<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Lab :</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> 36<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>LD<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>:</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> 9<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=SpellE><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Oth</span></span></span><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> :</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> 24<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>UKIP: 14 so UKIP share of combined <span class=GramE>Others</span> vote is 58%<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Forecast Election Day Shares with 95% Prediction Intervals<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class=p1><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Con :</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> 34.9 plus or minus 7.7 i.e. between 27 and 43<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Lab :</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> 31.9 plus or minus 5.7 i.e. between 26 and 38<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>LD<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>:</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> 12.8 plus or minus 8.6 i.e. between 4 and 21<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Implied point estimate shares for:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>Others combined: 20.4<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span><span class=GramE>UKIP<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>:</span> 11.9 (based on share of combined Others vote.)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Forecast Election Day Seats<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class=p1><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Con :</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> 295<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Lab :</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> 296<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>LD<span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>:</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'> 31<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Lab largest party, but short of a majority by 31<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Forecast Election Day Seats with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Assuming LD share at 12.8 and <span class=GramE>Other</span> share at 20.4 and allowing Con and Lab to vary as per intervals above.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Con between 213 and 389<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Lab between 207 and 372<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>LD between 25 and 38<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Approximate probabilities of key outcomes<o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class=p1><span class=SpellE><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Pr</span></span></span><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>(</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Con largest party) = 49%<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=SpellE><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Pr</span></span></span><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>(</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Lab largest party) = 51%<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=SpellE><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Pr</span></span></span><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>(</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Con majority) = 23%<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=SpellE><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Pr</span></span></span><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>(</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Lab majority) = 25%<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=SpellE><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Pr</span></span></span><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>(</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Hung parliament) = 52%<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=SpellE><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Pr</span></span></span><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>(</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Hung parliament with Con largest party) = 26%<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=SpellE><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Pr</span></span></span><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>(</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Hung parliament with Lab largest party) = 26%<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-no-proof:yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"/> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"/> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"/> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"/> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"/> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"/> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"/> </v:formulas> <v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"/> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t"/> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_1" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:779pt;height:566pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square'> <v:imagedata src="index_files/image001.png" o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=781 height=568 src="index_files/image002.png" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_1"><![endif]></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN-GB'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-no-proof:yes'><!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_2" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" type="#_x0000_t75" style='width:779pt;height:566pt;visibility:visible; mso-wrap-style:square'> <v:imagedata src="index_files/image003.png" o:title=""/> </v:shape><![endif]--><![if !vml]><img border=0 width=781 height=568 src="index_files/image004.png" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_2"><![endif]></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN-GB'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>The inputted current polling average is that from <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/"><span class=s2>UK Polling Report</span></a>, chosen because it is sensible, convenient and frequently updated. But this is not a claim that this is necessarily the best estimate of current opinion and it would be reasonable to use other methods of averaging recent polls. On occasion I will adjust the polling average to make it more up to date. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p2><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>I try to update the forecast every week, and mostly on Fridays.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><b style='mso-bidi-font-weight:normal'><span style='font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Acknowledgements</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN-GB'>: I am very grateful for comments to John <span class=SpellE>Curtice</span>, <span class=SpellE>Jouni</span> <span class=SpellE>Kuha</span>, Clive Payne, Mark Pickup and Chris Prosser, and to Rob Ford, Will Jennings and Chris <span class=SpellE>Wlezien</span> for early discussions about this work. I am also very grateful for the numerous and wide ranging comments on Twitter and elsewhere online in response to previous drafts. The paper has been revised substantially in part thanks to them. Most especially, I am indebted to Will Jennings for compiling and preparing the historical polling data. The methodology is a combination of previously developed techniques with refinements and new developments. Please see </span><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-bidi-font-family: Helvetica'>the<span style='color:#D90B05'> <a href="http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/ge15forecast/LongRangeElectionForecastingFeb14.pdf"><span style='color:#0000E9'>working paper</span></a></span> for full details including citations to previous related methods.</span><span style='font-size: 10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p2><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p> <p class=p5><span class=s3><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><a href="http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0084/">Stephen Fisher</a></span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN-GB'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Department of Sociology<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>University of Oxford<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Manor Road<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>Oxford OX1 3UQ<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=SpellE><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>stephen.fisher</span></span></span><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>@</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span class=GramE><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>sociology.ox.ac.uk</span></span><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN-GB'> or trinity.ox.ac.uk<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=p1><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-GB'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></p> </div> </body> </html>