• What a Puzzle! Unravelling Why UK Phillips Curves were Unstable has been published in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

• Econometric Forecasting of Climate Change, with David F. Hendry and J. Isaac. (Zack) Miller is forthcoming in M. P. Clements and A. Galvão (eds.) Handbook of Macro-economic Forecasting.

• Stability between cryptocurrency prices and the term structure with Takamitsu Kurita has now been published in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

• Forecasting the UK top 1\% income share in a shifting world with Jurgen A. Doornik and David F. Hendry has now been published in Economica for the Economica 100 Challenge.

• Five Sensitive Intervention Points to Achieve Climate Neutrality by 2050, Illustrated by the UK has been published in Renewable Energy with an accompanying paper, Can the UK achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050? published in the National Institute Economic Review.

• I am the Principal Investigator for the Calleva research grant `Climate Change: Effects and Solutions', running from 2023-2026.

• I have been awarded a Titular Associate Professor with the Department of Economics, University of Oxford.

• I am a member of the research group on project Model invariance and constancy in the face of large shocks to the Norwegian macroeconomic system funded by the Research Council of Norway (Principal Investigator: Ragnar Nymoen).

• From 1 October 2022 I am the Director of Climate Econometrics and have a small appointment at the Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment.

• The role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with David F. Hendry and Andrew B. Martinez, VoxEU, 14 September 2022.

• David Hendry and I submitted written evidence to the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee on A strategy for achieving net zero emissions by 2050.




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Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast. The book is available from Yale University Press. See Climate Econometrics for a blog about the book and The Enlightened Economist for a review.




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The evolution of life on Earth - a tale of both slow and abrupt changes over time - emphasizes that change is pervasive and ever present. Change affects all disciplines using observational data, especially time series of observations. When the dates of events matter, so data are not ahistorical, they are called non-stationarity denoting that some key properties like their means and variances change over time. There are several sources of non-stationarity and they have different implications for modelling and forecasting. This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. The book is open access and is available from Palgrave Macmillan.




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