Counting transgender people in the census

Event frequency and total participation The 2021 Census of England and Wales was one of the first in the world to ascertain the gender identity of an entire population. When the results were first released in January 2023, I realized that they were not plausible.

My analysis was eventually published as ‘Gender Identity in the 2021 Census of England and Wales: How a Flawed Question Created Spurious Data’ in Sociology, April 2024. This article shows that the results of the Census are implausible with regard to geography, language, education, ethnicity, and religion. The results contradict data on referrals to gender clinics and signatures on a pro-transgender petition. The results are also internally inconsistent when the various categories of gender identity are correlated across localities, and when compared with sexual orientation. The spurious results were produced by a flawed question: ‘Is the gender you identify with the same as your sex registered at birth?’. Tracing the genealogy of this question, I reveal that it originated with a transgender campaigning organization in 2007. The question evidently confused a substantial number of respondents who erroneously declared their gender identity to differ from their natal sex. Confusion is manifested in the overrepresentation of people lacking English proficiency in the most suspect gender categories.

Before the article was published, I posted initial findings on SocArXiv (first version in January 2023) and wrote a popular piece—‘Why Does the Census Say There Are More Trans People in Newham than Brighton?’—for the Spectator in April 2023. This generated sufficient media coverage to force the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) each to initiate reviews of these statistics. The review by the ONS was a predictable whitewash.

The 2022 Census of Scotland asked a much clearer question, ‘Do you consider yourself to be trans, or have a trans history?’. As soon as its results were released, I showed how these provided further evidence that the Census of England and Wales inflated the transgender population. My analysis was posted on SocArXiv (July 2024) and sent to the OSR. The OSR finished its review in September 2024, which vindicated my critique. The transgender figures in the Census of England and Wales have been downgraded and can no longer be treated as ‘official national statistics’.

The errors are not confined to the 2021 Census. The same misleading questions has been used in numerous surveys in England and Wales. My letter showing that ‘England's GP Patient Survey Provides Unreliable Data on Transgender Patients’ was published in Archives of Sexual Behavior, vol. 53, 2024, pp. 2423–26. The OSR has ordered the ONS to develop a proper question for such surveys.

I summarized the impact of my research in the Spectator: ‘The ONS Finally Admits to Flawed Trans Population Statistics’, September 2024.

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