Ethnic violence in Gujarat in 2002 killed at
least a thousand Muslims. Compiling data from the Times of India, we
investigate variation across 216 towns and rural areas. Analysis
reveals the political logic of violence. Killing was less likely where
the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was weakest, but was
even less likely where the BJP was strong; it was most likely where the
party faced the greatest electoral competition. Underemployment and
Muslim in-migration also increased violence. The political logic is
confirmed by analysis of the subsequent election: the BJP’s vote
increased most in districts with the worst violence. Police chiefs in
districts where violence was severe were more likely to be promoted.
Michael Biggs, Department of Sociology, University of Oxford