Discontinuities in Household and Family Formation
DisCont
2017-2022
Bocconi University
and
Department of Economics at the
University of Oxford
A research project supported by the
European Research Council AdG 694262
Researchers and collaborators -
Covid forecasting -
Events -
Publications -
Discussion Papers -
Software -
Summary
Researchers and collaborators:
- Francesco C. Billari,
Principal Investigator,
Department of Policy Analysis and Public Management, Bocconi University
- Bent Nielsen,
Economics, University of Oxford and Nuffield College
- Ozan Aksoy,
Social Science, University College London
- Nicolò Cavalli,
Sociology, University of Oxford and Nuffield College
- Jurgen Doornik, University of Oxford
- Zoe Fannon,
Economics, University of Oxford and Somerville College
- Osea Giuntella,
Economics, University of Pittsburgh
- Jonas Harnau,
Economics, University of Oxford and Oriel College
- Ridhi Kashyap,
Nuffield College and Sociology, University of Oxford
- Di Kuang, Lloyds of London.
- Berkay Özcan,
Social Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science
- Patrick Präg ,
Sociology, University of Oxford and Nuffield College
- Eric Qian ,
University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, and Duke University
- Concetta Rondinelli,
Research Department, Bank of Italy
- Maria Sironi,
Social Science, University College London
- Luca Stella,
Schumpeter School of Business and Economics, University of Wuppertal and IZA
- Ingmar Weber,
Qatar Computing Research Istitute
- Emilio Zagheni,
Sociology and eScience, University of Washington
Covid Forecasting:
Events:
Publications:
- Harnau, J. and Nielsen, B. (2018)
Over-dispersed age-period-cohort models.
Journal of the American Statistical Association
113, 1722-1732.
Download:
Article,
Nuffield Discussion Paper 2017-W06.
Vignettes with code:
apc in R,
apc in Python,
and with description of typos in Table 3,4.
- Harnau, J. (2018)
Misspecification tests for log-normal and over-dispersed Poisson chain-ladder models
Risk
6, 25.
Download:
Article,
Department of Economics Discussion Paper 840.
- Aksoy, O. and Billari, F.C. (2018)
Political Islam, Marriage, and Fertility: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
American Journal of Sociology
123, 1296-1340.
Download:
Article.
- Harnau, J. (2018)
Log-Normal or Over-Dispersed Poisson?
Risk
6, 70.
Download:
Article.
- Harnau, J. (2018)
Age-period-cohort models.
D.Phil. thesis,
University of Oxford.
- Elpidorou, V., Margraf, C., Martínez-Miranda, M.D. and Nielsen, B. (2019)
A likelihood approach to Bornhuetter-Ferguson analysis.
Risks.
7, article 119.
Download:
Article.
- Fannon, Z. and Nielsen, B. (2019)
Age-period-cohort models.
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance.
Oxford University Press.
Download:
DOI:10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.495, open access,
Nuffield Discussion Paper 2018-W04.
- Kuang, D. and Nielsen, B. (2020)
Generalized Log-Normal Chain-Ladder.
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal
2020, 553--576.
Download:
doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2019.1696885, Open access.
Previous versions:
arXiv,
Nuffield Discussion Paper 2018-W02.
- Fannon, Z., Monden, C. and Nielsen, B. (2021)
Age-period cohort modelling and covariates, with an application to obesity in England 2001-2014.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A
184, 842-867.
Download:
Open access.
Earlier version:
Nuffield Discussion Paper 2018-W05.
Supplement
Code for replication: 2018-W05a.
Implemented in apc for R.
Discussion Papers:
- Harnau, J. and Nielsen, B. (2017)
Over-dispersed age-period-cohort models.
Download:
Nuffield Discussion Paper 2017-W04.
- Harnau, J. (2017)
Misspecification tests for chain-ladder models.
Download:
Department of Economics Discussion Paper 840.
- Kuang, D. and Nielsen, B. (2018)
Generalized Log-Normal Chain-Ladder
Download:
arXiv,
Nuffield Discussion Paper 2018-W02.
- Fannon, Z. and Nielsen, B. (2018)
Age-period-cohort models.
Download:
Nuffield Discussion Paper 2018-W04.
- Fannon, Z., Monden, C. and Nielsen, B. (2018)
Age-period cohort modelling and covariates, with an application to obesity in England 2001-2014.
Download:
Nuffield Discussion Paper 2018-W05.
Supplement
Code for replication: 2018-W05a.
Software:
- apc in R
An R package for age-period-cohort modelling.
Download:
apc from CRAN
and
further documentation and development version.
- version 1.3 released 1 Dec 2016 includes over-dispersed Poisson modelling.
- version 1.3.1 released 7 May 2017 minor corrections.
- version 1.3.2 released 15 Aug 2018 minor corrections.
- version 1.3.3 released 27 Aug 2018 includes draft cross section modelling.
- version 1.3.4 released 18 Nov 2019 includes forecasting in log normal chain ladder model.
- version 1.3.5 released 27 Nov 2019 minor additions.
- version 2.0.0 released 1 Oct 2020 includes cross section and panel data methods.
- apc in Python
Download:
apc from Python
- version 0.1.0 released 8 Apr 2017.
- version 0.2.0 released 5 Oct 2017.
- version 1.0.0 released 26 Jul 2018.
- version 1.0.1 released 10 Aug 2018.
Summary:
-
Household, family and fertility changes are key drivers of population dynamics. Discovering and explaining the velocity of these changes is essential to understand the current situation and to provide scientific evidence on demographic future. DisCont will provide seminal contributions by studying the impact of macro-level discontinuities on household and family formation (including fertility) in advanced contemporary societies. In the past decade, two macro-level discontinuities have radically transformed lives: the Great Recession and the digitalisation of life and the life course. Although their short-term and long-term impacts are likely to be fundamental, they have not yet been systematically analysed. Through a coordinated series of theoretically-founded empirical studies based on linked macro- and micro-level data, and using a comparative perspective, DisCont will argue that macro-level discontinuities are crucial in explaining broad changes in household and family formation, and that their effects can be persistent either for the population as a whole, or for specific cohorts. DisCont will contribute to five areas: 1) it will make theoretical advances by showing the importance of the macro-level discontinuities in the explanation of general changes in household and family formation in particular, and in population dynamics in general; 2) it will substantially advance our knowledge of household and family formation in advanced contemporary societies; 3) it will contribute in a systematic and path-breaking way to research on the broader societal impact of the digital revolution and of the Great Recession; 4) it will bring a paradigm shift in Age-Period-Cohort modelling; 5) it will make groundbreaking methodological contributions on the demographic use of large-scale survey and “big data” and on the use of agent-based models for the population-level implications of household and family change.