Risk Averse Banks and Uncertain
Correlation Values: A Theory of Rational Bank Panics
Alan D. Morrison
Abstract
We present a model for Financial fragility in which
banks are risk-averse portfolio managers and there is uncertainty over
risk management parameters. There is a danger of heightened risk aversion
and projects in small economies are assumed to be riskier than those in
large economies. In this situation there is a danger that a rise in
project correlations will lead to a rational but unnecessary credit
crunch. We conclude firstly that greater transparency in the dissemination
of correlation parameters is desirable and secondly that regulators should
respond to heightened financial fragility by relaxing capital adequacy
requirements.
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