Predictability of large future
changes in a competitive evolving population
David Lamper,
Sam
Howison,
Neil Johnson
Abstract
The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological,
biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small
number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large,
internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for
a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually
increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a
predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.
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